What is the incidence of vCJD and what are the future trends?

As of February 6, 2002, there have been 114 cases of v-CJD in the UK (106 confirmed and 8 suspected). There have been 5 confirmed cases of vCJD in France, one in Ireland and one in Hong Kong. There are two further suspected cases in France and one in Italy.

There is insufficient information available at present to make any valid scientific predictions about future trends in the incidence of vCJD. Part of the problem lies in the long incubation period of the disease, a lack of knowledge on the exact cause and transmission of the disease and the assumption that vCJD results from having eaten BSE infective materials prior to 1989. The Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) has ranked the risk of vCJD as "extremely small".

New and ongoing measures to eliminate BSE in cattle are targeted at further reducing the incidence of vCJD. Certainly the incidence of BSE in cattle in the UK, although still of concern, has fallen significantly over recent years and BSE cases in mainland Europe remain low.